JD Vance proves divisive as Donald Trump’s pick for vice-president

Welcome back to US Election Countdown. It’s only Tuesday and it’s already been quite the week in US politics. On the (very full) docket today:

• Trump’s VP pick

• The mood at the RNC

• Economic advantage, Trump

In the past three days Trump has: survived an assassination attempt; had his classified documents case dismissed; and on the first day of the Republican National Convention yesterday, he seized the moment to announce his running mate, senator JD Vance.

Vance became a household name in 2016 when he published Hillbilly Elegy, his memoir about growing up poor and surrounded by substance abuse in white, working-class America. Trump’s choice of the Ohio native as his VP could help the former president win votes across the Midwest swing states.

When Vance first came to the national stage, the US Marine Corps veteran described himself as “a never Trump guy” and debated whether the former president was “America’s Hitler.” Eight years later, the tide has turned dramatically — he’s since become one of Trump’s fiercest defenders.

The Yale Law school graduate has attracted sharp criticism for embracing Trump’s claims that the 2020 presidential election was “stolen”. He’s also embraced an isolationist foreign policy and has actively opposed more US aid to Ukraine (a stance he’s espoused in the Financial Times).

But his brand of economic populism has proved divisive in the business community. As the FT’s Lauren Fedor reports, traditional Republicans on Wall Street are concerned that Vance could play an outsized role in the future of the GOP [free to read]. His support for protectionist trade policy, stricter immigration laws, higher minimum wages and a more aggressive approach to antitrust enforcement has clearly rattled some nerves.

Prior to the announcement, one top New York dealmaker said picking Vance as vice-president “would not be reassuring to the business community, and could signal an anti-M&A mindset for the second Trump administration”.

Check FT.com for the latest updates from Milwaukee RNC. I’ll be back in your inbox on Thursday.

Campaign clips: the latest election headlines

• Ken Griffin gave $20mn to two Republican super Pacs, making the Citadel hedge fund founder a top donor to the Republican effort to control Congress. [Free to read]

• Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said Trump had “well-founded plans” to quickly demand Russia-Ukraine peace talks if elected in November.

• Joe Biden defended his fitness for office in a sit-down interview yesterday. Catch up on Biden’s conversation with Lester Holt. (NBC News)

• Robert Kennedy Jr vowed to remain in the White House race, raising the possibility that the third-party candidate could sway the election.

• The Supreme Court’s landmark immunity decision has been the gift that keeps on giving for Trump team.

• Americans were shocked but not necessarily surprised after Trump was shot on Saturday. Meanwhile, the FBI has gained access to the shooter’s phone.

Behind the scenes

Much of the FT’s Washington team is on the ground in Milwaukee covering the RNC this week. Among them is James Politi, Washington bureau chief, who arrived on the scene just before Vance was announced as Trump’s running mate.

Despite plenty of security being in place just days after Trump’s attempted assassination, James told me lines moved quickly and the screening process was simple.

On the convention floor, the VP decision was met with a “burst of excitement among the delegates”, James said, adding:

The conservative base will mostly be pleased with the choice: Donald Trump Jr, the former president’s son, had been pushing for him and was standing by his side on Monday afternoon. He is also well-liked among Silicon Valley Republican donors.

Vance’s fans in the tech world include venture capitalists David Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya — they hosted a Trump fundraiser last month that Vance helped organise. X chief Elon Musk also praised Trump’s VP pick, while tech titans have been piling donations into Republican groups.

Another advantage Vance gives Trump: he’s “an articulate spokesperson for Trumpism, and may well deliver some polished performances, including in a possible debate against Kamala Harris,” James said.

But his isolationist foreign policies and anti-abortion stances could turn off middle-of-the-road voters. Sarah Longwell, who conducts focus groups with swing voters in key battleground states, wrote on X on Monday afternoon:

“Swing voters from swing states not impressed with the JD Vance pick.”

Datapoint

Despite the tumult of the current political moment, Trump’s edge over Biden on the economy has remained a steady force, polling data shows.

Nearly half of American voters believe they will be better off if Trump wins the presidential election, according to the FT-Ross School of Business survey conducted July 8 — July 10.

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

Forty-five per cent of voters in the nationwide survey — including 40 per cent of independents — said they would be “much” or “somewhat” better off under Trump. In comparison, just 18 per cent said they felt financially better off since Biden became president; 49 per cent said they felt worse off.

It will come as no surprise to readers of this newsletter that Biden has struggled to convince voters that his economic policies are working — even amid low unemployment and falling inflation in recent months. A large majority of poll respondents ranked price increases among their biggest sources of financial stress, and over the past three months more than three-quarters of Americans said they believed inflation had gone up. In reality, it has moderated.

Figures released last week showed US inflation in June fell faster than expected, to 3 per cent. That’s more than six points lower than the high-water mark of 9 per cent two years ago.

You are seeing a snapshot of an interactive graphic. This is most likely due to being offline or JavaScript being disabled in your browser.

Viewpoints

• The US’s global influence could be the biggest loser of this election, writes Ivan Krastev.

• Trump is doubling down on Maga by picking Vance as his running mate, says Edward Luce.

• Vance’s Lunch with the FT in 2018 provides a window into how his views on Trump have evolved.

• Sadly, it’s not accurate to say political violence “has no place” in American society, writes David Frum. “Assassinations, lynchings, riots, and pogroms have stained every page of American political history.” (The Atlantic)

• Ruth Marcus says Judge Aileen M Cannon misfired with her decision to drop Trump’s Mar-a-Lago documents case. (Washington Post)