What’s next for the US presidential race after the assassination attempt on Donald Trump?

Good morning and welcome to a special edition of US Election Countdown, where we’ll break down what the attempt on Donald Trump’s life means for the White House race.

Across the political spectrum, the country is reeling from the attempted assassination — an event that could upend the entire election.

It produced what will be an iconic image in US history: Trump, blood streaming from his ear and streaked across his face, pumping his fist as Secret Service agents swarm him — all against a clear blue sky and the American flag.

The shooting has taken the US to the brink [free to read]. It is the latest episode of political violence to engulf the country, stirring anxieties, anger and toxicity last felt so acutely following the attack on the US Capitol on January 6 2021.

The assassination attempt “will be connected, inevitably, in people’s minds, not just to the shooter and even to the candidate, but to the broader culture”, Julian Zelizer, a professor of political history at Princeton University, told the FT’s James Politi.

The attack could bode well for Trump’s election prospects, with his bloodied image serving as an emblem of political resurrection after his criminal conviction. The former president already has the polling edge both nationally and in most battleground states.

Trump’s allies think the shooting will bring the Republican base to the polls in droves, and bolster support among independents and swing state voters sympathetic to the ex-president’s ordeal.

For Joe Biden and the Democratic party it also poses an obstacle to attacking Trump on the campaign trail. Within hours of the shooting, the president’s campaign suspended some advertising.

There seems to be a tentative campaign truce — but with so much tension and aggressive rhetoric in our political climate, who knows how long that will last? There is a clear fear that more violence could stain the remaining months of the race, or after the vote.

Trump is now in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for this week’s Republican National Convention, where he’ll be formally anointed the party’s nominee. Stay tuned for our regularly scheduled edition of the newsletter tomorrow.

Campaign clips: the latest headlines on the assassination attempt on Trump

• Biden called for Americans “to lower the temperature in our politics” in an address from the Oval Office last night.

• In his first interview since the shooting, Trump told a conservative US media outlet that he would overhaul his RNC speech “to bring the country together”. Earlier Sunday he called for national unity in the face of “evil”, as more details emerged about the attack. (Washington Examiner, FT)

• Pressure is piling up on the US Secret Service as Congress launched an investigation into “inexcusable security breaches” at Trump’s campaign rally.

• Here’s what we know about the shooter, whose motives law enforcement authorities are struggling to figure out.

• Trump’s allies have cast him as the ultimate survivor. Already a political martyr in their eyes, the attempt on the former president’s life triggered fresh glorification of Trump in the Maga orbit.

Datapoint

Betting markets are increasingly pointing towards a Trump victory.

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The ex-president’s chances of winning the election rose to 66 per cent after the attempt on his life, according to political betting platform PredictIt.

In the hours before his Pennsylvania rally, Trump’s odds were around 60 per cent. He had already established a firm lead over Biden ever since the June 27 debate.

Viewpoints

• Gideon Rachman raises the possibility that Trump’s attempted assassination may not shift many votes in such a highly polarised nation.

• As Trump dodged a bullet, the country did, too, says Edward Luce. “There is no telling what his death would have unleashed.”

• The FT editorial board deemed Saturday “a dark day of violence in America”, and reminded politicians of their “great responsibility to call for calm and unity”.

• Peter Spiegel posed the question of whether the US is entering another age of political violence. But “history shows that bloodshed can be the shock that forces moderation back to the fore”, he writes.

• The New York Times editorial board called the attack on Trump “a sobering reminder . . . of the threat that political violence poses to our democracy”.

• The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board called Trump’s “miraculous” survival a potentially “redemptive political moment”.